Farmers' woes worsen as drought continues

By Cherry Sokoloski
North Forty News

This year, the miracle didn't happen. From many quarters, the word is this: 2004 is shaping up very much like 2002, a record dry year.

Last year at this time, area farmers were suddenly optimistic, after a huge storm in mid-March dumped 32 inches of snow on Larimer County. The March event, which filled reservoirs and replenished soil moisture, was called a "drought-busting" storm by many. Unfortunately it was just a blip on the screen, and the drought continues into its fifth year.

The effects of the drought are beginning to show in northern Larimer County. Fields are dry and dusty, pastures are brown and barley seed is sitting idle in the fields, waiting for spring rains to germinate. March brought below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures, causing the meager snowpack to start its meltdown early. Soil moisture is poor, and the only serious clouds hang over agriculture's head.

"We're in as bad shape as 2002, except we've got a little water in storage to start with," said Gary Simpson, president of North Poudre Irrigation Co. Farmers are now watching the skies for some much needed moisture. They're also watching to see what NPIC decides at its April 7 meeting, when this year's water appropriation will be set. The appropriation will help determine what crops can be grown this year.

Simpson said the company will start the season with a conservative appropriation and increase it later if possible. A "rough guess," of this year's allotment, he said, is 2.5 to 2.75 acre-feet per share. Last year's was 3.75 acre-feet, and in a normal year, the appropriation ranges between 5 and 7 acre-feet per share.

As the drought hangs on, the lack of moisture is causing problems for many producers, including dryland farmers whose winter wheat is struggling to survive. "We're a lot worse off than last year," said Rod Diehl, whose family farms northwest of Wellington. "If we get rain by early April, we'll probably be average. Otherwise, there will be nothing."

If winter wheat is ailing, corn may never see the light of day this year. Diehl said his family will wait to see what the NPIC appropriation is before deciding whether they can grow corn on their irrigated land. Last year they planted low-water crops like sorghum, and they'll do the same this year "unless North Poudre comes up and surprises us."

Tim Kerbs, who farms with his brother Brad near Wellington and Fort Collins, said they don't plan to change their crops this year. They'll plant sugar beets early in April and corn at the end of the month, but if conditions remain dry they'll likely let some ground lie idle so they can get a good corn crop on the rest of their land.

Jackie Worthington, who ranches north of the Rawhide plant, said her big concern is pasture grass, which won't grow until there's some moisture. "Some of the grasses are stressed from the drought," she said, "and some of them have disappeared." Noting that the prairie grasslands are a fragile environment, she said it will take a few years for the grasses to come back.

For cattle ranchers like Worthington, that means a shortage of pasture. She said her grazing association has cut back on the number of animals allowed to graze, so everyone's out scrambling for additional pasture. If pasture can be found, the rancher has to pay double, once to the grazing association and again for the extra pasture. Add that to high hay prices and high gas prices this year, and the rancher is in a real bind. Worthington sold a lot of cows in 2001 and 2002 and is hoping she won't have to sell more this year.

The root of many ag problems is the lack of moisture in the soil, a problem that gets worse as the drought continues.

Steve Smith, NPIC manager, said he recently dug some 6-foot holes, and there was no sign of moisture at all. "That's the biggest reservoir that's empty right now," he said. "It took four years to drain, and it will take a while to fill it back up." Since dry soils cause shrink in irrigation ditches, North Poudre's job of delivering irrigation water will be challenging this year, Smith said.

Smith said the continuing drought means that farmers need to be aware of limits in irrigation water. "I don't think we'll have a free river like last year," he said, referring to the good runoff from the March 2003 storm. As a result, there's no assurance of early water for sugar beets.

According to Smith, "Farmers need to think about reducing acreage again. That saved a lot of people last year, because they didn't have to spread water so thin."

One advantage farmers don't have this year is the opportunity to rent out their shares of NPIC water. Last year, Smith said, 60 to 65 percent of shareholders rented out their Colordado-Big Thompson water to municipalities and their ag water to other producers. With city reservoirs healthier this year, that's not an option.

The positive side of the picture is a much improved storage supply in the reservoirs compared with the last two years. Even so, reservoirs still haven't caught up from 2001 and 2002 and are below average for this time of year. As of late March, total storage on the C-BT system stood at 87 percent of average. "March is going south on us," said spokesman Brian Werner of the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District. "We're losing percentage points every day, and the April prognosis isn't very good."

Horsetooth Reservoir was due to reach its maximum capacity March 31, but that fact is somewhat misleading. According to Kara Lamb of the Bureau of Reclamation, the reservoir had to be filled in order to undergo a final inspection for the modification work on the dams. To accomplish that, water had to be diverted from Lake Granby on the west slope, which is now at just 37 percent of capacity. Granby is down about 25 percent, or 56,000 acre-feet, from a normal year.

When the dust settles, 2004 could be seen as yet another year in a long period of drought, and no one is predicting when it might end.